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Could Venezuela become Zimbabwe? Ask Cemex

In the margins of Barron's this week there was a smallish note about the government of Venezuela nationalizing Cemex's (NYSE: CX) operations in that country. For some reason the government of Hugo Chavez thinks that stealing all of the private companies in 'his' country will lead to greater prosperity for 'his' people.

While it is a long journey from Venezuela to Zimbabwe, with its exponential inflation rate and a near-total economic breakdown, every journey begins with a first step. Mr. Chavez will move much closer to this inevitable outcome if he continues on his chosen path.

Motley Fool has a good write-up on the subject in which they detail the sour relations between Chavez and foreign businesses. Chavez recently offered to re-open negotiations with Cemex, but since he has already decided to take the company, that offer is suspect -- you can't negotiate with a gun pointing at you. To date, Chavez has nationalized the telecommunications industry, electricity, and oil. How many steps down the road is that? Why would anyone want to invest in Venezuela?

Continue reading Could Venezuela become Zimbabwe? Ask Cemex

Serious Money: $99,000 CDs safer than $100,000

Since several banks have been taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), many depositors who had limited their accounts to the $100,000 guarantee have been taken by surprise to find the funds are not immediately available for withdrawal, sometimes only learning that fact after waiting hours in line.

It is a peculiarity of government to sometimes punish the innocent with a very logical bureaucratic nuance. In this case, depositors should be aware the FDIC will indeed make good on its promise. The problem is that all accounts with more than $100,000 are frozen until they can sort out who is due what.

Since a $100,000 account can become larger due to collected interest, access to money is held up even if the overage is by a small amount. However, if the account is smaller, then there is no question and the money can be released.

So although funds are not at risk in the long run, in the short run, access may be restricted. Therefore, you may find it safer to keep $99,000 in your account than $100,000, or you should have all the interest automatically deposited in another account so you do not go over the limit.

All of this is not material except in the most extreme of circumstances. On the other hand, that is when a delay in access to your funds is also the most critical.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

Serious Money: 5 more stocks better than CDs -- NUE, PDS, SO, WFC, XEL

This is a continuation of Serious Money: Choose these 5 stocks over CDs -- DEO, GE, HNP, JPM, MRK, which listed the first five stock ideas. Below are the other picks rounding out the ten.

Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) - This is one of the world leaders in the idea of mini-mills. This smallish steel producer prides itself on running a tight ship, pays a dividend and has a P/E under 9. The steel industry has been volatile in recent years with many mergers and acquisitions. NUE could be a takeover target as the industry continues to consolidate. In the mean time, at Friday's closing price of $51.6, it was paying a 4.05% yield and is near its 52 week low, having dropped from a high of $83.56.

Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS) - This Canadian supplier of gas drilling equipment and manpower is probably the least well known of the companies in this group. It has dropped off its highs with the recent sag in gas prices and may well be a bargain again although not the bargain it was when I posted Chasing Value: Precision Drilling for 10% yield. At Friday's closing price of $21.35 it was paying a 7.1% yield and that is still a wonderful bounty even it the stock only appreciates a little.

Continue reading Serious Money: 5 more stocks better than CDs -- NUE, PDS, SO, WFC, XEL

Serious Money: Choose these 5 stocks over CDs -- DEO, GE, HNP, JPM, MRK

The following two-part article puts forth ten stock ideas that I believe would be better off in your investment portfolio than one comprised primarily of Certificates of Deposits (CDs) or bonds, or even government treasuries. This is not to say that CD's do not have value or offer some level of security, but they are long term losers.

A basket of high yielding-high quality stocks can offer a higher return, better tax advantages, and the potential of significant appreciation for those with a long time horizon. Five year CD earning 4%, or a utility stock? I pick the utility every time.

My wife sent me the following quote from Ambrose Redman that I thought would be worth sharing with readers: "Courage is not the absence of fear but rather the judgment that something else is more important than one's fear."

It seems that might be extended to one's view on investing as well. What is really important, the short term or the long term, growth or value, the promise of riches or the hope for stability? In each case I would favor the latter over the former and this brings to mind one of my pal Warren's lessons: Do not buy a stock unless you would be happy to own it even if the market was closed for ten years.

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A and BRK.B) is certainly a candidate. Take a look at last week's Chasing Value: Considering Berkshire Hathaway... again. However, it does not pay a dividend. The following five quality stocks do:

Continue reading Serious Money: Choose these 5 stocks over CDs -- DEO, GE, HNP, JPM, MRK

Chasing Value: Huaneng Power odds & ends

Every trade publication made mention this week that Huaneng Power International, (ADR) (NYSE: HNP), following the decision by China's National Development and Reform Commission to lift power price tariffs, said it's increased prices by 5.67% in a move effective Aug. 20.

The stock is down from $41.75 in December when I suggested adding it to your watch list, to about $35 ten weeks ago when I last wrote at length about it in Chasing Value: You want power, buy power -- Huaneng Power HNP. It closed today at $28.36, up $0.31 (+1.11%) and is paying a 5.78% dividend yield.

The Motley Fools recently reported that the Chinese goverment will be increasing their efforts to clean up the environment. Along those lines Huaneng Power is in the procees of building the first zero-emissions coal-fired power plant. HNP also announced that it is raising generating capacity to 36,993 MW.

HNP remains one of my favorites for the next few decades as China continues to develop. As long as the dividend remains secure it is a very compelling stock to include in a long term diversified portfolio as a core holding.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of HNP.

Bloated MSFT, sluggish YHOO & confused AOL need a new diet

My very first post on bloggingstocks was Microsoft: What are you thinking about? where I ranted that Microsoft Inc. (NASDAQ: MSFT) stock was going nowhere. Over the last 29, months that is exactly what it has done. It closed yesterday at $27.62.

This is not to say it has not had it's moments rising at one time to a 52-week high of $37.50 on a lot of hopes and prayers. Nevertheless, I felt then and do now that MSFT would be better off in pieces Micro'soft' vs Micro'hard' -- Break it up fellas!

If Microsoft wants to compete against Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and be a dominant player on the web, it should split out its web services as a separate company. That new company would be the right merger partner for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). There is no reason to tie the web services business to the future of the Zune (if it has one) or the XBOX entertainment game player and other equally unrelated business.

Continue reading Bloated MSFT, sluggish YHOO & confused AOL need a new diet

Chasing Value: Considering Berkshire Hathaway... again

Over the summer, my twelve-year-old son proclaimed that he was going to be the world's first zillionaire! I had to explain to him that if he achieved that lofty goal he would be the only one because that is more capital than exists today; unless he meant Zimbabwean dollars. I suggested that long before he owned the whole planet there might be a few objections here and there.

This got me thinking about my pal Warren, a frequent topic of conversation in business and investment circles, and how he amassed such a great fortune over the past five decades.

He is a long way from owning the world but he has started to expand his horizons to the international scene. He has bought and sold PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) for a tidy $4 billion dollar profit and he has been hedging against the dollar for the last few years with mixed results. He bought an Israeli metal fabricator and he has splashed about in Europe and Asia.

If you read Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.B) annual reports you will find the chairmans letters, where Buffett discusses both his successes and his failures. It is his failures and the fact that he does not make the right call every time that I wish to draw attention today. BloggingStocks promotes much debate, sometimes name calling, and sometimes worse. However, it is important to understand that even the best investors make mistakes.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Considering Berkshire Hathaway... again

Obama adding Clinton is just good business + HD & LOW

The first major economic act of presidential hopeful Barack Obama will be to add Hillary Clinton to the lower half of the democratic ticket. If he does not, he will be throwing caution to the wind.

All indications are that he does not want to do this and hopes he will not have to -- but he may not have any choice.

It is just good business and if he is too stubborn, too arrogant, or just misguided by favorable polling numbers, he should think again. There are many Hillary supporters who will find McCain more centrist than Obama and switch parties. There will be very few, if any, to the right of McCain who will vote for Obama. They are more likely to not vote than support Obama.

Adding Hillary Clinton, in most people's eyes, will slam dunk the presidential race and if Obama does not make this tough decision, putting success in front of politics and personalities, then I am afraid all his talk of being able to stand up to special interests and take the heat in the kitchen is just that.





Continue reading Obama adding Clinton is just good business + HD & LOW

Serious Money: How safe were BRK, BUD, PG, SO, & UPS?

The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.

Six of the eight did well and two did not, and of course one of those two was a disaster. Among the losers, I do not think anyone is fretting about UPS, which is still one of the few triple-A rated companies along with Berkshire Hathaway. It has been well reported that the slowing economy and higher fuel prices have been the major culprits affecting UPS's earnings. In the case of WaMu, it's demise has also been well reported, but at the time I recommended it WaMu had a stellar reputation of growth and high yield for over two decades. There is no hiding, it turned out to be a lousy pick and an ANTI-SAFE Haven

NOT SAFE:

United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) closed Monday at $65.30 down from $78.40; a 16.71% loss

Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) closed Monday at $4.21 down from $45.50; a 98% loss.

Fortunately the remaining six picks have done very, very well. If you had bought the pool, the average gain over the last two years would have been 7.14%. Adding the dividends over the two years would have raised this to 13.14%.

Continue reading Serious Money: How safe were BRK, BUD, PG, SO, & UPS?

Radio! Radio! Intuitive Surgical is now on the radio!

During my various commutes over the past week I have been hearing a new radio commercial about Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG). The City of Hope Hospital in Los Angeles is advertising their Di Vinci robotic surgical procedures to attract patients.

They use the catch phrase "The science of saving lives" while promoting less invasive surgical procedures, shorter hospital stays, and faster recovery. These are well-known themes among the medical profession and investors but it is the first time I have heard the story promoted for a competitive advantage among hospitals. I am sure it won't be the last.

Certainly this will raise the bar among other hospitals competing for similar business and simply to keep their Di Vinci operating rooms productive, cost effective, and profitable. It also means that any hospital without the equipment will soon be deemed second rate, if they are not already.

Perhaps we will soon be hearing competing hospitals bragging about having multiple Di Vinci's or more trained doctors or the highest number of procedures or new procedures. Where will it end? When it is common place and every hospital is using the system.

Have you heard any radio advertising from hospitals in your city? Fans of Elvis Costello can check out Radio, Radio" at Last fm. here.

ISRG closed last Friday at $299.17 and is trading down slightly this morning. It has been hovering around $300 for the past two weeks.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of ISRG and have no relationship whatsoever with "Last fm" ,but I was reminded of the song and it is way cool.

Chasing Value: MBIA up over 120% - now what?

Reporting on the daily appreciation of MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) over the last few weeks has made me feel like a play-by-play announcer. One comment in an earlier post on MBIA raked me over the coals for writing when the stock was up 26%, only a few days after I suggested readers take a look at some crushed financials in Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials. He did this even though on the day he commented it was up by 74%.

I was just reporting the jump but the reader took me to task for bragging when nothing should be judged so quickly, and my previous financial calls were bad. Well, MBIA has now leaped from $4.92 three weeks ago to $11.22 at Friday's close for a gain of 126%. This is BIG news even if it happened quickly -- in particular because it happened quickly.

The reasons may be numerous. Perhaps it is a combination of company stock buybacks and short covering. Perhaps it is the periodic comments in Barron's about the value of the company based on its current book of business and the fact it needs no new business to be profitable. In its last earnings report, MBIA did suprise to the upside substantially. Last Friday was certainly related to the fact that it was taken off the watch-list for the next three months as the ratings agencies supported MBIA's rating of AA.

MBIA has a current price-to-book of 0.26, a P/S ratio of 0.76 and P/CF of 1.57, so maybe it is still worth a look.

Update: Final, closed up to $11.83, $0.61, (+ 5.44%). MBIA stands at $140% gain.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of MBI.

Chasing Value: 40% growth, P/E 8 -- Bunge Ltd.

Analysts have been negative on the agri-business processing sector recently, but the stocks have been shedding value for two months and they may have to reconsider. Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is delivering 42% growth according to Smart Money.

The stock is down 16% from my original post recommending it for 2008 and it is trading down more this morning. However, I have not changed my opinion about the prospects of the company and my original rational has remained solid despite the wild swings in the stock over the past few months.

Last year when I posted Serious Money: ADM, Bunge, Potash Corp. -- it's a hungry world it looked like there was no downside, and even though it is disappointing to see the stock down now, all I can say is the investment opportunity is even better. As they are a leading producer of soy and soy products, how can one resist this level of growth at a P/E of 8, half the market average?

Continue reading Chasing Value: 40% growth, P/E 8 -- Bunge Ltd.

Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- June/July, that sinking feeling

After seven months of tracking my 2008 picks -- Wham! -- I went from beating the indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) to being humbled by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all. This is the low point since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

Only Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) remained in positive territory, down from five stocks that were up in the last report. Sometimes, the reasons for the downslide were more obvious than they were in the cases for my picks. The cutting in half of Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) has been reported often, as the largest independent oil refiner in North America has had its profit margins squeezed.

Loews Corporation (NYSE: L) has been hurt by its insurance interests and helped by its holdings -- a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index is narrower than in the past.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- June/July, that sinking feeling

Serious Money: 'Stable stocks' update - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA & XEL

Well, the market was in the dumps yesterday and is even worse today. So this may be a good time to check on my list of stocks for those looking for equities that are stable enough to ride out this bearish storm.

This update is a spot-check of my earlier post Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, to see how my picks are holding up so far. Closing prices are for August 12, 2008.

The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The following are the five stocks with closing prices from July 1.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It finished at $71.70 -- up 11.44%

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It finished at $46.41-- up 1.3%.

3) Chubb Corp. (NYSE: CB) -- when recommended the stock closed at $49.01 and paid a 2.64% dividend yield. It finished at $48.39 -- down 1.26%.

Continue reading Serious Money: 'Stable stocks' update - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA & XEL

Chasing Value: Newcastle reports loss but pays dividend

Although Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) continues to post losses, the real estate investment trust's board voted to maintain a quarterly dividend of 25 cents a share. The dividend is payable on July 30 to shareholders of record as of July 7. This continued support of the dividend leaves the stock above a 15% yield as of the close yesterday at $6.67.

Newcastle reported a loss in funds from operations of $87.7 million, or $1.66 a share, in the April-June period, compared with a gain of $34 million, or 64 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter. The company booked a $63.2 million charge related to its sub-prime securities portfolio. Revenue fell nearly 40% to $115 million from $191.9 million in the second quarter of 2007.

This is a highly leveraged company that is trying to ride out a turbulent real estate and financial market. It holds a wide variety of industrial, commercial and retail notes, with about 10% of the portfolio in residential notes. It has been hurt by the collapse of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market (CMBS), which does not show signs of recovery in the near term.

Negative earnings and high leverage are not inviting to most investors right now. But I think the company will survive and it is paying a very high yield and has been for quite some time.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Newcastle reports loss but pays dividend

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Last updated: August 28, 2008: 01:16 AM

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